Dont'e Thornton Jr.
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
NFL player prop KC Settled: Miss
Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD vs. Raiders
The bet: Anytime TD
KC@LV Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Cleared 0.5 in 1 of his last 3
Last 3 gamesSep 14 to Sep 27L3 average 0.3
Oldest to newest
Past results, not a forecast.
Showing saved research.
Settled: Anytime TD lost.
Final: No.
Hit rate vs the line
1of3
(33%)
Sep 14 – Sep 27
- 1
- 0
- 0
Anytime TD per game, oldest to newest
Game results
Patrick Mahomes · last 3 games · Anytime TD.
Touchdown results
Sep 14
vs DEN
TD
Hit
Sep 20
vs IND
No TD
Miss
Sep 27
@ MIA
No TD
Miss
Game log · L3, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | @MIA | Miss | 0 |
| Sep 20 | vsIND | Miss | 0 |
| Sep 14 | vsDEN | Hit | 1 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Kansas City Chiefs
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
5–2
Record
23.9
Points / game
18.7
Allowed / game
Las Vegas Raiders
2026 season · 8 games
4–4
Record
27.6
Points / game
28.8
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Anytime TD
Closing price
Odds format
Open
+475
Current
+450
Change
−25
Best available moved from +475 to +450. That pays $25.00 less on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Game conditions
- Venue
- Allegiant Stadium
- Las Vegas, NV · Grass
- Forecast
- 92°F0% precipitationGusts 5 mph
Game-day inactives
Las Vegas Raiders
Jackson Powers-Johnson
G · Groin ·
Aidan O'Connell
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Jonah Laulu
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Darrell Luter Jr.
CB · Coach's Decision ·
Tristin McCollum
S · Coach's Decision ·
Kansas City Chiefs
Jared Wiley
TE · Coach's Decision ·
Garrett Nussmeier
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Diego Pounds
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Jack Pyburn
LB · Coach's Decision ·
Josh Simmons
OT · Back ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN game outlookNamed sportsbook line and dated ESPN model
DraftKings game line
ESPN snapshot
- Spread
- KC -4.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- Las Vegas Raiders
- +185
- Kansas City Chiefs
- −225
ESPN matchup predictor
Model snapshot
- Las Vegas Raiders
- 30%
- Kansas City Chiefs
- 70%
Kansas City Chiefs by 5.4
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Latest sourced reports
- Kansas City Chiefs’ lone practice squad elevation for Week 4 vs. Las Vegas Raiders pushes player to his limit for the 2026 NFL season (opens in a new tab)
The Kansas City Chiefs have elevated LB Cole Christiansen for Week 4 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
- Kansas City Chiefs’ final injury report confirms veteran defender will make his 2026 debut in Week 4 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (opens in a new tab)
Kansas City Chiefs’ final injury report confirms veteran defender will make his 2026 debut in Week 4 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Las Vegas Raiders
Jack Bech
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Kansas City Chiefs
Jadon Canady
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Patrick Mahomes anytime TD at +450?
What is the historical hit rate for Patrick Mahomes anytime TD?
Patrick Mahomes scored a touchdown in 1 of 3 tracked games across the last 3 games.
What is the closing price for Patrick Mahomes anytime TD?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:25 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.