DeShon Elliott
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
NFL player prop PIT Settled: Hit
Jaylen Warren Under 16.5 Carries vs. Colts
The bet: Under 16.5 carries
You checked 16.5, an alternate line. Most books: 17.5.
IND@PIT Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Stayed under 16.5 in 2 of his last 4
Last 4 gamesSep 13 to Oct 1L4 average 13.8
Oldest to newest
Past results, not a forecast.
Showing saved research.
Settled: Under 16.5 carries won.
Final: 15.
Hit rate vs the line
2of4
(50%)
Sep 13 – Oct 1
- 10
- 11
- 17
- 17
Carries per game, oldest to newest
L4 average
13.8vs 16.5 line
Based on 4 games
Game results
Jaylen Warren carries over the last 4 games versus a line of 16.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 16.5
Game log · L4, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | @CLE | Miss | 17 |
| Sep 27 | vsCIN | Miss | 17 |
| Sep 20 | @NE | Hit | 11 |
| Sep 13 | vsATL | Hit | 10 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Indianapolis Colts
2026 season · 7 games
2–5
Record
22
Points / game
25.7
Allowed / game
Pittsburgh Steelers
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
5–2
Record
21.9
Points / game
19.7
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Under 16.5 carries
Closing price
Odds format
Open
−125
Current
−103
Change
+22
Best available moved from −125 to −103. That pays $17.09 more on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Game conditions
- Venue
- Acrisure Stadium
- Pittsburgh, PA · Grass
- Forecast
- 61°F76% precipitationGusts 23 mph
Game-day inactives
Pittsburgh Steelers
Eli Heidenreich
RB · Coach's Decision ·
Drew Allar
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Will Howard
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Rico Dowdle
RB · Toe ·
Terell Smith
CB · Coach's Decision ·
Indianapolis Colts
Riley Leonard
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Dalton Tucker
G · Coach's Decision ·
Ashton Dulin
WR · Hamstring ·
Jaylon Carlies
LB · Ribs ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN game outlookNamed sportsbook line and dated ESPN model
DraftKings game line
ESPN snapshot
- Spread
- PIT -3
- Game total
- 41.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- −162
- Indianapolis Colts
- +136
ESPN matchup predictor
Model snapshot
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- 49%
- Indianapolis Colts
- 51%
Indianapolis Colts by 0.1
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Latest sourced reports
- Germie Bernard makes promise to Steelers after Michael Pittman Jr. injury update (opens in a new tab)
Germie Bernard makes promise to Steelers after Michael Pittman Jr. injury update It's assumed that Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could look toward the 22-year-old more often with Pittman sidelined, potentially for at least a month.
It's assumed that Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could look toward the 22-year-old more often with Pittman sidelined, potentially for at least a month.
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Derrick Harmon
out
Reported context: Front-seven depth is affected; pressure and run-defense effects are not quantified.
Indianapolis Colts
Arden Key
out
Reported context: Front-seven depth is affected; pressure and run-defense effects are not quantified.
Darius Slayton
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Jaylen Warren Under 16.5 carries at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Jaylen Warren Under 16.5 carries?
Jaylen Warren hit under 16.5 carries in 2 of 4 games across this season (4 games) (50% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Jaylen Warren Under 16.5 carries?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 1:00 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.