Christian Kirk
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
NFL player prop DEN Settled: Hit
Carries
Under 4.5 carries
2 of 3 decided (67%) · last 3 games
Price as of Oct 4, 4:20 PM ET −126 at DraftKings
Limited sample: 3 decided games. Historical results are not a win probability.
Verified facts
Bo Nix hit under 4.5 carries in 2 of his last 3 tracked games (67%).
Showing saved research.
Final: 2.
Closing price not available. Pregame evidence: hit 2 of 3 (67%) in the last 3.
2of3
(67%)
Sep 14 – Sep 27
Carries per game, oldest to newest
4.0vs 4.5 line
Based on 3 games
Bo Nix carries over the last 3 games versus a line of 4.5.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | vsLA | Hit | 4 |
| Sep 20 | vsJAX | Miss | 5 |
| Sep 14 | @KC | Hit | 3 |
Closing price: DraftKings −126 · 4¢ better than theScore Bet
Prices as of Oct 4, 4:20 PM ET. Compare prices at the book.
Game context
Bo Nix: 3.7 rushing attempts average (6 tracked games).
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
2026 season · 6 games
4–2
Record
19
Points / game
20.8
Allowed / game
2026 season · 6 games
6–0
Record
29.5
Points / game
18.3
Allowed / game
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Open
+101
Current
−126
Change
−27
Best available moved from +101 to −126. That's a worse payout. The move still doesn't tell you whether Under is worth backing.
Pregame research captured
San Francisco 49ers
Jordan James
RB · Coach's Decision ·
James Thompson Jr.
DT · Ankle ·
Ephesians Prysock
CB · Coach's Decision ·
Kurtis Rourke
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Enrique Cruz Jr.
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Denver Broncos
Dallen Bentley
TE · Coach's Decision ·
Dondrea Tillman
LB · Hamstring ·
Tyler Onyedim
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Kage Casey
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Sam Ehlinger
QB · Coach's Decision ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN snapshot
Model snapshot
San Francisco 49ers by 7.9
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Broncos coach Sean Payton had the 49ers logo painted on the team's practice field.
The 49ers and Broncos square off in a highly anticipated Week 4 matchup.
nypost.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Christian Kirk
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Adam Prentice
Reported context: Reported availability does not confirm an unrestricted workload.
Bo Nix hit under 4.5 carries in 2 of his last 3 tracked games (67%).
Bo Nix hit under 4.5 carries in 2 of 3 games across the last 3 games (67% hit rate).
−126 at DraftKings is the best price attached to this check for Bo Nix Under 4.5 carries right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:25 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.