Christian Kirk
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
NFL player prop SF Settled: Miss
Passing TDs
You checked 2.5, an alternate line. Most books: 1.5.
Over 2.5 passing tds
2 of 3 decided (67%) · last 3 games
Price as of Oct 4, 4:20 PM ET +350 at BetRivers
Limited sample: 3 decided games. Historical results are not a win probability.
Verified facts
Brock Purdy hit over 2.5 passing tds in 2 of his last 3 tracked games (67%).
Showing saved research.
Final: 2.
Closing price not available. Pregame evidence: hit 2 of 3 (67%) in the last 3.
2of3
(67%)
Sep 10 – Sep 27
Passing TDs per game, oldest to newest
3.0vs 2.5 line
Based on 3 games
Brock Purdy passing tds over the last 3 games versus a line of 2.5.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | vsARI | Hit | 4 |
| Sep 20 | vsMIA | Miss | 2 |
| Sep 10 | vsLA(neutral) | Hit | 3 |
Closing price: BetRivers +350 · 110¢ better than Caesars
Prices as of Oct 4, 4:20 PM ET. Compare prices at the book.
Game context
Brock Purdy: 2.6 passing touchdowns average (5 tracked games).
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
2026 season · 6 games
4–2
Record
19
Points / game
20.8
Allowed / game
2026 season · 5 games
5–0
Record
30.8
Points / game
18.6
Allowed / game
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Open
+360
Current
+350
Change
−10
Best available moved from +360 to +350. That's a worse payout. The move still doesn't tell you whether Over is worth backing.
Pregame research captured
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Denver Broncos
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ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN snapshot
Model snapshot
San Francisco 49ers by 7.9
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)The 49ers and Broncos square off in a highly anticipated Week 4 matchup.
Broncos coach Sean Payton had the 49ers logo painted on the team's practice field.
nypost.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Christian Kirk
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Adam Prentice
Reported context: Reported availability does not confirm an unrestricted workload.
Brock Purdy hit over 2.5 passing tds in 2 of his last 3 tracked games (67%).
Brock Purdy hit over 2.5 passing tds in 2 of 3 games across the last 3 games (67% hit rate).
+350 at BetRivers is the best price attached to this check for Brock Purdy Over 2.5 passing tds right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:25 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.