DeVonta Smith
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
NFL player prop PHI Pending
Today's check
The bet: Under 4.5 receptions
You checked 4.5, an alternate line. Most books: 3.5.
Best price now −150 at BetMGM, as of Oct 26, 8:55 AM ET · 1 book quoting · Updating prices...
Opened −148 at FanDuel, now −150
5 of 6 decided (83%) · this season
Verified facts
Makai Lemon averaged 3 catches across 5 stored games, below the 4.5 line. He had 4.8 passes thrown his way per game. These are past results, not a forecast.
Showing saved statistics.
The opponent: Dallas Cowboys allowed 11.8 catches per game to opposing wide receivers combined across 6 games. That is a group total, not a forecast for one player.
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Showing saved research.
5of6
(83%)
Sep 13 – Oct 18
Receptions per game, oldest to newest
3.0vs 4.5 line
Based on 6 games
Makai Lemon receptions over the last 6 games versus a line of 4.5.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | vsCAR | Hit | 3 |
| Oct 11 | vsJAX(neutral) | Miss | 5 |
| Oct 4 | vsLA | Hit | 3 |
| Sep 28 | @CHI | Hit | 3 |
| Sep 20 | @TEN | Hit | 1 |
| Sep 13 | vsWAS | Hit | 3 |
Best price now: BetMGM −150
Prices as of Oct 26, 8:55 AM ET. Compare prices at the book.
Over +130
Over +122
Over +131
Over +125
Over +114
Over +130
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
LEMON · TEAM TARGET SHARE
15%of team targets
2026 regular season6 games
LEMON · TEAM AIR-YARD SHARE
9.8%
2026 regular season6 games
LEMON · TARGETS PER GAME
4.7targets/game
2026 regular season6 games
Open
−148
Current
−150
Change
−2
Best available moved from −148 to −150. That's a worse payout. The move still doesn't tell you whether Under is worth backing.
Research refreshed
after Jalen Hurts was sidelined by a blood clot.
signing QB Joe Milton off the Dallas Cowboys' practice squad
thecomeback.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
DeVonta Smith
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Dontayvion Wicks
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Dee Winters
Reported context: Front-seven depth is affected; pressure and run-defense effects are not quantified.
Drew Shelton
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
Makai Lemon hit under 4.5 receptions in 5 of his last 6 tracked games (83%). Best price is −150 at BetMGM.
Makai Lemon hit under 4.5 receptions in 5 of 6 games across this season (6 games) (83% hit rate).
−150 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Makai Lemon Under 4.5 receptions right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:15 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.