Dont'e Thornton Jr.
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
NFL player prop KC Settled: Miss
Passing TDs
You checked 4.5, an alternate line. Most books: 1.5.
Over 4.5 passing tds
0 of 3 decided (0%) · last 3 games
Price as of Oct 4, 4:20 PM ET +3000 at theScore Bet
Limited sample: 3 decided games. Historical results are not a win probability.
Verified facts
Patrick Mahomes hit over 4.5 passing tds in 0 of his last 3 tracked games (0%).
Showing saved research.
Final: 2.
Closing price not available. Pregame evidence: hit 0 of 1 (0%) in the last 1.
0of3
(0%)
Sep 14 – Sep 27
Passing TDs per game, oldest to newest
2.3vs 4.5 line
Based on 3 games
Patrick Mahomes passing tds over the last 3 games versus a line of 4.5.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | @MIA | Miss | 2 |
| Sep 20 | vsIND | Miss | 3 |
| Sep 14 | vsDEN | Miss | 2 |
Closing price: theScore Bet +3000 · 1000¢ better than BetMGM
Prices as of Oct 4, 4:20 PM ET. Compare prices at the book.
Game context
Patrick Mahomes: 1.8 passing touchdowns average (5 tracked games).
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
2026 season · 5 games
5–0
Record
28
Points / game
16.6
Allowed / game
2026 season · 6 games
3–3
Record
27
Points / game
27
Allowed / game
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Open
+2000
Current
+3000
Change
+1000
Best available moved from +2000 to +3000. That's a better payout, not a stronger case for Over.
Pregame research captured
Las Vegas Raiders
Jackson Powers-Johnson
G · Groin ·
Aidan O'Connell
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Jonah Laulu
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Darrell Luter Jr.
CB · Coach's Decision ·
Tristin McCollum
S · Coach's Decision ·
Kansas City Chiefs
Jared Wiley
TE · Coach's Decision ·
Garrett Nussmeier
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Diego Pounds
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Jack Pyburn
LB · Coach's Decision ·
Josh Simmons
OT · Back ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN snapshot
Model snapshot
Kansas City Chiefs by 5.4
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)The Kansas City Chiefs have elevated LB Cole Christiansen for Week 4 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
Kansas City Chiefs’ final injury report confirms veteran defender will make his 2026 debut in Week 4 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Jack Bech
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Jadon Canady
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Patrick Mahomes hit over 4.5 passing tds in 0 of his last 3 tracked games (0%).
Patrick Mahomes hit over 4.5 passing tds in 0 of 3 games across the last 3 games (0% hit rate).
+3000 at theScore Bet is the best price attached to this check for Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 passing tds right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:25 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.