DeShon Elliott
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
NFL player prop IND Settled: Miss
Passing TDs
You checked 4.5, an alternate line. Most books: 0.5.
Over 4.5 passing tds
0 of 4 decided (0%) · this season
Price as of Oct 11, 12:58 PM ET +2000 at BetMGM
Limited sample: 4 decided games. Historical results are not a win probability.
Verified facts
Daniel Jones hit over 4.5 passing tds in 0 of his last 4 tracked games (0%).
Showing saved research.
Final: 0.
Closing price not available. Pregame evidence: hit 0 of 1 (0%) in the last 1.
| Date | Opponent | Line | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.5 | +2000 | miss |
0of4
(0%)
Sep 13 – Oct 4
Passing TDs per game, oldest to newest
0.8vs 4.5 line
Based on 4 games
Daniel Jones passing tds over the last 4 games versus a line of 4.5.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | vsWAS(neutral) | Miss | 0 |
| Sep 27 | vsHOU | Miss | 1 |
| Sep 20 | @KC | Miss | 1 |
| Sep 13 | vsBAL | Miss | 1 |
Closing price: BetMGM +2000
Prices as of Oct 11, 12:58 PM ET. Compare prices at the book.
Game context
Daniel Jones: 0.7 passing touchdowns average (6 tracked games).
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
2026 season · 6 games
2–4
Record
24
Points / game
27.3
Allowed / game
2026 season · 6 games
4–2
Record
22.8
Points / game
21.3
Allowed / game
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Open
+1750
Current
+2000
Change
+250
Best available moved from +1750 to +2000. That's a better payout, not a stronger case for Over.
Pregame research captured
Pittsburgh Steelers
Eli Heidenreich
RB · Coach's Decision ·
Drew Allar
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Will Howard
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Rico Dowdle
RB · Toe ·
Terell Smith
CB · Coach's Decision ·
Indianapolis Colts
Riley Leonard
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Dalton Tucker
G · Coach's Decision ·
Ashton Dulin
WR · Hamstring ·
Jaylon Carlies
LB · Ribs ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN snapshot
Model snapshot
Indianapolis Colts by 0.1
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Michael Pittman Jr. injury update It's assumed that Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could look toward the 22-year-old more often with Pittman sidelined, potentially for at least a month.
Germie Bernard makes promise to Steelers after Michael Pittman Jr. injury update It's assumed that Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could look toward the 22-year-old more often with Pittman sidelined, potentially for at least a month.
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
DeShon Elliott
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Derrick Harmon
Reported context: Front-seven depth is affected; pressure and run-defense effects are not quantified.
Arden Key
Reported context: Front-seven depth is affected; pressure and run-defense effects are not quantified.
Darius Slayton
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Daniel Jones hit over 4.5 passing tds in 0 of his last 4 tracked games (0%).
Daniel Jones hit over 4.5 passing tds in 0 of 4 games across this season (4 games) (0% hit rate).
+2000 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Daniel Jones Over 4.5 passing tds right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 1:00 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.