Demond Claiborne
out
Reported context: Backfield depth is affected; replacement touches are not confirmed.
NFL player prop MIN Pending
Aaron Jones Over 40.5 Pass + Rush + Reception Yards vs. Bills
The bet: Over 40.5 pass + rush + reception yards
BUF@MIN Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET
Cleared 40.5 in 4 of his last 7
Last 7 gamesSep 13 to Nov 1L7 average 78.3
Oldest to newest
Past results, not a forecast.
Showing saved research.
All games and results for this betHit rate vs the line
4of7
(57%)
Sep 13 – Nov 1
- 40
- 105
- 92
- 128
- 117
- 26
- 40
Total Yds per game, oldest to newest
L7 average
78.3vs 40.5 line
Based on 7 games
Game results
Aaron Jones total yds over the last 7 games versus a line of 40.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 40.5
Game log · L7, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Total Yds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | @DET | Miss | 40 |
| Oct 25 | vsIND | Miss | 26 |
| Oct 11 | @NO | Hit | 117 |
| Oct 4 | vsMIA | Hit | 128 |
| Sep 27 | @TB | Hit | 92 |
| Sep 20 | @CHI | Hit | 105 |
| Sep 13 | vsGB | Miss | 40 |
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
Aaron Jones
- Passing + rushing + receiving yards per game
- 78.3
Season · 7 games
Aaron Jones
JONES · TEAM CARRY SHARE
55.3%
2026 regular season7 games
Buffalo Bills
BUF allows
269pass yds allowed/game to QBs
3rd most (L4: 9th most)7 games
BUF PASS RUSH
1.6sacks/game by BUF defense
Last 5 games
Market movement
Price history
Over 40.5 pass + rush + reception yards
Best priceWhat's the vig on this price?
Odds format
Open
−125
Current
−130
Change
−5
Best available moved from −125 to −130. That pays $3.08 less on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
The latest saved updates may be out of date.
Research refreshed
Matchup reports
No game report passed the current research checks. Injury statuses below are separate reports, not a news summary.
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Minnesota Vikings
Jauan Jennings
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Buffalo Bills
Jordan Hancock
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Joshua Palmer
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Aaron Jones Over 40.5 pass + rush + reception yards at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Aaron Jones Over 40.5 pass + rush + reception yards?
Aaron Jones hit over 40.5 pass + rush + reception yards in 4 of 7 games across the last 7 games (57% hit rate).
What is the best price for Aaron Jones Over 40.5 pass + rush + reception yards?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:15 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.