Joe Alt
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
NFL player prop DEN Settled: Miss
Pass Completions
You checked 17.5, an alternate line. Most books: 21.5.
Over 17.5 pass completions
2 of 4 decided (50%) · this season
Price as of Oct 11, 3:52 PM ET −494 at DraftKings
Limited sample: 4 decided games. Historical results are not a win probability.
Verified facts
Bo Nix hit over 17.5 pass completions in 2 of his last 4 tracked games (50%).
Showing saved research.
Final: 16.
Closing price −494 at DraftKings. Pregame evidence: hit 2 of 3 (67%) in the last 3.
| Date | Opponent | Line | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET | Los Angeles Chargers | 17.5 | −494 | miss |
2of4
(50%)
Sep 14 – Oct 4
Pass Completions per game, oldest to newest
20.3vs 17.5 line
Based on 4 games
Bo Nix pass completions over the last 4 games versus a line of 17.5.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Pass Completions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | @SF | Hit | 25 |
| Sep 27 | vsLA | Miss | 17 |
| Sep 20 | vsJAX | Hit | 22 |
| Sep 14 | @KC | Miss | 17 |
Closing price: DraftKings −494 · 6¢ better than theScore Bet
Prices as of Oct 11, 3:52 PM ET. Compare prices at the book.
Game context
Bo Nix: 19 completions average (6 tracked games).
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
2026 season · 6 games
4–2
Record
19
Points / game
20.8
Allowed / game
2026 season · 6 games
0–6
Record
15
Points / game
25.2
Allowed / game
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Open
−535
Current
−494
Change
+41
Best available moved from −535 to −494. That's a better payout, not a stronger case for Over.
Pregame research captured
Los Angeles Chargers
Rodney Shelley
CB · Hamstring ·
Brenen Thompson
WR · Quadriceps ·
Quentin Johnston
WR · Chest ·
Donte Jackson
CB · Hamstring ·
Derwin James Jr.
S · Hamstring ·
Denver Broncos
Sam Ehlinger
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Pat Surtain II
CB · Ankle ·
Riley Moss
CB · Ribs ·
Tyler Onyedim
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Jordan Jackson
DT · Coach's Decision ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN snapshot
Model snapshot
Denver Broncos by 0.1
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Success of Broncos' play-calling shake-up hinges on QB Bo Nix letting it fly
The Denver Broncos are making a needed play-calling change, but it won't work until starting quarterback Bo Nix begins ripping it.
yardbarker.com · · Matchup report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Joe Alt
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
Kayode Awosika
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
Dallen Bentley
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Kage Casey
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
Bo Nix hit over 17.5 pass completions in 2 of his last 4 tracked games (50%).
Bo Nix hit over 17.5 pass completions in 2 of 4 games across this season (4 games) (50% hit rate).
−494 at DraftKings is the best price attached to this check for Bo Nix Over 17.5 pass completions right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:05 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.