Aaron Nola
Outs·Under 16.5·PHI @ DET
6:41 PM ET
Is Aaron Nola Under 16.5 Outs a good bet at this number?
Aaron Nola has hit the under 16.5 in 6 of 7 recent games (86%). Lean under. Small sample — only 7 games of tracked data.
Best Over
−106· FanDuel
Best Under
−119· Pinnacle
Aaron Nola vs 16.5: recent track record
Recent games for Aaron Nola outs vs line 16.5.
Recent games vs line
The hit rate breakdown
Games Played
18
ERA
6.05
Outs L1
21
Outs Avg L3
16.333
Outs Avg L5
15.6
Outs Avg L7
15.143
Outs Avg L10
15
Outs Avg
15.333
Line movement on this prop
Line movement for both sides of the bet, plus best available over vs under over time.
Price history for the Over
Aaron Nola 17+ Outs
Price history for the Under
Aaron Nola Under 16.5 Outs
Best over vs best under for this line
Frequently asked
Is Aaron Nola Under 16.5 Outs a good bet at this number?
Aaron Nola has hit the under 16.5 in 6 of 7 recent games (86%). Lean under. Small sample — only 7 games of tracked data.
What is Aaron Nola's hit rate on this prop?
Aaron Nola went Under 16.5 in 6 of 7 tracked games — 86% at this line. That's one signal. We also check the season baseline and whether the current price beats our fair-value estimate.
What is the best price on Aaron Nola Under 16.5?
−119 at Pinnacle is the best we're seeing right now across seven books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, theScore Bet, Pinnacle). Line shopping matters — the spread across books on a single prop usually runs 15–20 cents. Always take the top of the market.
When does this prop resolve?
Grades on the official box score after PHI @ DET (scheduled for 6:41 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens decide whether a prop is worth betting?
We look at hit rate (last 10 and last 30), the full-season baseline, and how the prop is priced across seven books. We strip the vig to find a fair price and compare that to the best price available. If the offered price beats fair, we call it a lean. If not, we pass — and we pass a lot. A bad price is still a bad price, even when the player is on a run.