Michael Soroka
Earned Runs·Under 2.5·ARI @ CIN
4:11 PM ET
Is Michael Soroka Under 2.5 Earned Runs a good bet at this number?
Michael Soroka cleared the under 2.5 in their last game. Lean under. Small sample — only 7 games of tracked data.
Best Over
−113· DraftKings
Best Under
−117· Pinnacle
Michael Soroka vs 2.5: recent track record
Recent games for Michael Soroka earned runs vs line 2.5.
Recent games vs line
The hit rate breakdown
Games Played
13
ERA
3.35
Er L1
1
Er Avg L3
2.333
Er Avg L5
2
Er Avg L7
1.571
Er Avg L10
2.2
Er Avg
2.077
Line movement on this prop
Line movement for both sides of the bet, plus best available over vs under over time.
Price history for the Over
Michael Soroka 3+ Earned Runs
Price history for the Under
Michael Soroka Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Best over vs best under for this line
Frequently asked
Is Michael Soroka Under 2.5 Earned Runs a good bet at this number?
Michael Soroka cleared the under 2.5 in their last game. Lean under. Small sample — only 7 games of tracked data.
What is Michael Soroka's hit rate on this prop?
Michael Soroka went Under 2.5 in 6 of 7 tracked games — 86% at this line. That's one signal. We also check the season baseline and whether the current price beats our fair-value estimate.
What is the best price on Michael Soroka Under 2.5?
−117 at Pinnacle is the best we're seeing right now across seven books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, theScore Bet, Pinnacle). Line shopping matters — the spread across books on a single prop usually runs 15–20 cents. Always take the top of the market.
When does this prop resolve?
Grades on the official box score after ARI @ CIN (scheduled for 4:11 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens decide whether a prop is worth betting?
We look at hit rate (last 10 and last 30), the full-season baseline, and how the prop is priced across seven books. We strip the vig to find a fair price and compare that to the best price available. If the offered price beats fair, we call it a lean. If not, we pass — and we pass a lot. A bad price is still a bad price, even when the player is on a run.