Aaron Nola
Earned Runs·3+·NYM @ PHI
7:11 PM ET
Is Aaron Nola 3+ Earned Runs a good bet at this number?
Aaron Nola has had 3+ earned runs in 2 of 3 recent games (67%). Lean over. Small sample — only 3 games of tracked data.
Best Over
−125· BetMGM
Best Under
−103· DraftKings
Aaron Nola vs 2.5: recent track record
Recent games for Aaron Nola earned runs vs line 2.5.
Recent games vs line
The hit rate breakdown
Games Played
19
ERA
5.92
Er L1
2
Er Avg L3
4
Er Avg L5
3.2
Er Avg L7
3.429
Er Avg L10
3.2
Er Avg
3.263
Line movement on this prop
Line movement for both sides of the bet, plus best available over vs under over time.
Price history for the Over
Aaron Nola 3+ Earned Runs
Price history for the Under
Aaron Nola Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Best over vs best under for this line
Frequently asked
Is Aaron Nola 3+ Earned Runs a good bet at this number?
Aaron Nola has had 3+ earned runs in 2 of 3 recent games (67%). Lean over. Small sample — only 3 games of tracked data.
What is Aaron Nola's hit rate on this prop?
Aaron Nola went 3+ in 2 of 3 tracked games — 67% at this line. That's one signal. We also check the season baseline and whether the current price beats our fair-value estimate.
What is the best price on Aaron Nola 3+?
−125 at BetMGM is the best we're seeing right now across seven books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, theScore Bet, Pinnacle). Line shopping matters — the spread across books on a single prop usually runs 15–20 cents. Always take the top of the market.
When does this prop resolve?
Grades on the official box score after NYM @ PHI (scheduled for 7:11 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens decide whether a prop is worth betting?
We look at hit rate (last 10 and last 30), the full-season baseline, and how the prop is priced across seven books. We strip the vig to find a fair price and compare that to the best price available. If the offered price beats fair, we call it a lean. If not, we pass — and we pass a lot. A bad price is still a bad price, even when the player is on a run.