The NFL season kicks off with a slate of heavyweight matchups, and we’re diving into three of the biggest: Chiefs vs. Chargers, Jets vs. Steelers, and Bills vs. Ravens. Each game brings its own storyline, from star quarterbacks in spotlight roles to defenses trying to establish dominance early. In this breakdown, we’ll highlight the key players, analyze strengths and weaknesses on both sides, and pinpoint props worth targeting.
Keep in mind that prices and lines don’t stay still, odds shift right up until kickoff. That’s why WagerLens now offers a new tool to track how prop prices move over time, giving you a sharper edge in spotting value before the market adjusts.
1. Chiefs vs. Chargers (Friday in São Paulo)
Matchup Analysis
Offense
Patrick Mahomes has turned Week 1 into his personal showcase, piling up 2,059 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions across seven season openers. He rarely starts slow, and with another strong supporting cast around him, the Chiefs’ offense should be in rhythm from the start. On the other side, Justin Herbert remains the heartbeat of the Chargers. He threw for 3,870 yards last season (227.6 per game) with 23 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions, and he added another 306 yards on the ground. Herbert’s ability to extend plays and push the ball downfield keeps Los Angeles dangerous in any matchup.
Defense
The Chargers defense quietly put together one of the better pass defenses in the league last year, finishing 7th in passing yards allowed (206.9 per game) and 2nd in yards per attempt (6.2). Kansas City’s defense, meanwhile, was more middle-of-the-pack, giving up 3,720 passing yards (18th) and 24 passing touchdowns (12th). The Chargers were far more vulnerable against the run, allowing 120.3 rushing yards per game, which sets up Isiah Pacheco as an important factor for the Chiefs. In the end, this feels like a close contest on paper, but it’s hard to bet against Mahomes in an opener.
Betting Props
- Chiefs -3 spread: Mahomes’ track record in Week 1 is too strong to fade, and the Chargers’ offensive line questions give Kansas City the edge.
- Justin Herbert Over 224.5 Passing Yards: With his volume and efficiency, Herbert should clear this number against a defense that gives up plenty through the air.
- Isiah Pacheco Over 49.5 Rushing Yards: The Chargers’ run defense has been shaky, and Pacheco’s return should allow Kansas City to exploit that weakness.
2. Bills vs. Ravens (Sunday Night Football)
Matchup Analysis
Offense
This one sets up as a heavyweight fight between two of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson is coming off an MVP-level campaign, completing nearly 67% of his passes for over 4,100 yards with 41 touchdowns against just 4 picks, plus nearly 1,000 rushing yards. His dual-threat ability makes Baltimore dangerous every snap. Josh Allen remains Buffalo’s engine, throwing for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns last season while adding 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing scores. Allen’s red-zone rushing threat is as valuable as any RB in the league. The Ravens will look to utilize Zay Flowers who broke 1,000 receiving yards in his sophomore season and veteran Derrick Henry who rushed for nearly 2,000 yards with 16 rushing TDs. On the other side, the Bills have a less explosive receiving core consisting of Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman (ques) as well as James Cook who is a dangerous weapon on the ground with 16 TD in nearly half the yards as Henry, suggesting he will be a Red Zone threat.
Defense
Baltimore’s secondary was already one of the stingiest in 2024, and the additions of Jaire Alexander along with an extension for Marlon Humphrey give them one of the league’s most dangerous cornerback duos. That kind of coverage discipline will be critical against Josh Allen’s deep-ball aggression. On the other side, Buffalo’s defense bent plenty last season but held strong in the red zone, finishing 6th in opponent touchdown rate. The real swing factor could be whether the Bills’ front seven can keep Lamar Jackson from breaking containment, a challenge few defenses have consistently solved.
Betting Props
- Over 48.5 Total Points: Both offenses bring explosive upside, and Sunday night spotlights usually lean toward higher scoring.
- Lamar Jackson Over 47.5 Rushing Yards: His legs are a built-in game plan, and Buffalo has historically struggled against mobile QBs.
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: Buffalo leans on Allen in the red zone, and he’s hit this mark in 10 of his last 14 primetime games.
3. Jets @ Steelers (Sunday Afternoon)
Matchup Analysis
Offense
The headline writes itself: Aaron Rodgers makes his Steelers debut against his former team. Rodgers is chasing milestones as he is just five touchdowns shy of surpassing Brett Favre on the all-time list and he steps into a Pittsburgh offense that finally has true firepower with DK Metcalf as the deep threat and Jaylen Warren both on the ground and catching short check downs. Expect Pittsburgh to test the Jets deep early. On the other side, Justin Fields gets the keys in New York. While his passing has been inconsistent, he added over 1,000 rushing yards in each of his last two healthy seasons and can stress defenses with his legs. Fields has a WR room led by Garrett Wilson along with Allen Lazard and Josh Reynolds, giving him more weapons than in Chicago.
Defense
The Jets’ defense remains built around Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, but they struggled at times against the run last year, giving up over 115 rushing yards per game. That could open lanes for Jaylen Warren, especially with Rodgers willing to lean on the ground game early. Pittsburgh’s defense is still led by T.J. Watt, but the bigger story is how much Rodgers’ presence can elevate a Steelers unit that averaged just 18.8 points per game in 2024.
Betting Props
- Game Total Over 36.5: Rodgers revenge game and new weapons paired with Fields and his new team make the over a solid play here.
- Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: The Jets’ run-stopping gaps and Rodgers’ revenge factor set him up for multiple scores.
- Garrett Wilson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards: Fields will pepper him with targets as the Jets try to keep pace through the air.
