Everyone wants to talk about the stars in the NBA Finals. The Shai Gilgeous-Alexander show. The Thunder's depth. The storylines write themselves, but sharp bettors know the real money is in what everyone else overlooks.
That's why you need to target Tyrese Haliburton's three-point shooting props in this Finals matchup. While recreational bettors chase flashier markets, we're finding serious value in a specific corner of the prop world that consistently pays.
The Hidden Math Behind Haliburton's Threes
Let's get straight to what matters: Tyrese Haliburton is averaging 2.4 made threes per game this postseason. Solid but not spectacular, right? But there's more to this number than meets the eye.
The Thunder's defensive scheme is built to take away primary scoring options. Against the Pacers, that translates to heavy defensive pressure on driving lanes and interior scoring. What does that leave open? The catch-and-shoot three is precisely where Haliburton thrives.
Oklahoma City will focus their defensive attention on other threats, creating opportunities for Haliburton to operate in space. The market hasn't properly adjusted for this matchup-specific advantage.
What's especially interesting is how the Thunder's defensive priorities create blind spots. They're excellent at limiting primary options but can be exploited by secondary scoring avenues, especially when defenders are focused elsewhere.
Why The Market Is Mispricing This Prop
Many bettors chase the obvious props: player points, rebounds, or even the flashy assist leaders in this matchup. This creates inefficiencies in secondary markets like three-pointers made.
The current prop market heavily favors Thunder shooters or more prominent Pacers scorers, but smart money recognizes that defensive attention creates opportunity elsewhere. When sharp money looks at the film, they see:
- Haliburton getting cleaner looks when defenses collapse on drives
- More catch-and-shoot opportunities with less defensive pressure
- The Thunder's tendency to protect the paint first, leaving kick-out options open
The casual betting public doesn't account for defensive schemes when betting props. They look at season averages, recent performance, and narratives. But basketball is about matchups and adjustments. This is precisely where the edge exists.
Even more telling: when defenses tighten in clutch moments, role players often get the cleanest looks as stars face double teams. The Finals amplify this effect, making Haliburton's prop value even stronger.
How To Leverage This Edge
This isn't just theory. It's actionable. Here's how to capitalize:
- Target Haliburton's over on three-pointers made. The current line will likely hover around 2.5 threes. Given the matchup dynamics, this provides strong value.
Tip: Start your research by using the WagerLens Player Props Screen and filter by Player Threes to find the best price
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Consider Haliburton for "most threes made in a game" props. These specialty props often offer significant plus-money and don't require sustained performance — just one hot shooting night.
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Watch for in-game adjustment opportunities. If the Thunder defense shows they're keying on other Pacers early, Haliburton's live prop lines may still offer value even after a made three or two.
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Pair this with game flow bets. Haliburton's three-point production increases in games where the Pacers need to space the floor. Look for correlation with total points markets.
The Game 1 upset by the Pacers makes this prop even more valuable for the rest of the series. Now that Indiana has the Thunder's attention, Oklahoma City will likely focus even more on stopping Indiana's primary actions, potentially leaving Haliburton with even cleaner looks from deep.
The Betting Edge Most Miss
Basketball is a game of adjustments. The teams that win championships aren't just talented. They adapt. The same applies to betting these games.
While most bettors are chasing the obvious markets and narratives, sharp money finds edges in how defenses adjust and where scoring opportunities emerge as a result.
Haliburton's three-point props represent exactly this type of edge. When a talented shooter faces a defense preoccupied with other threats, opportunity emerges. The market hasn't fully priced in this dynamic, creating real value.
Most importantly, this approach is replicable. By understanding defensive priorities and identifying which offensive options benefit as a result, you can find similar edges throughout the playoffs, not just in this Finals matchup.
So while casual money chases the obvious, I'm taking Haliburton's three-point props to the bank. Sometimes the best values aren't in the spotlight, they're in the corners, waiting for an open shot.