Stopping the Chase: When to Fade the Over

Every night, thousands of bettors instinctively hammer the over in MLB games. It's human nature: we'd rather root for action than pray for pitcher's duels. But this predictable behavior creates one of the sharpest edges in baseball betting, especially if you know when to fade the public's love affair with high-scoring games.

The truth? Disciplined bettors can quietly cash tickets by selectively betting unders, particularly when posted totals hit 9 runs or higher.

The High Total Paradox

Since 2023, a clear pattern has emerged: when totals get set at 9 runs or higher, the under has hit at a stunning 73.4% clip. This isn't just a small sample anomaly: we're looking at a 190-169 record, producing +26.1 units and a 7.3% ROI for bettors smart enough to fade the public's over obsession.

It's simple market psychology. Casual bettors instinctively play the over, especially on high totals, creating artificially inflated numbers. Sportsbooks know this bias and shade their lines accordingly, knowing the public will still bite.

But why does this work so consistently? Because high posted totals often already factor in optimal hitting conditions: strong offenses, weak pitching matchups, hitter-friendly ballparks, or favorable weather. By the time a line hits 9+, the market has typically overcompensated.

Take recent games like Pittsburgh-Minnesota, Miami-Baltimore, Colorado-Cincinnati, and Mets-Royals. All featured inflated totals that smart bettors recognized as opportunities to go under, not over.

The Selective Over Strategy

This doesn't mean you should blindly bet under on every high total game. The key is selectivity. The real edge comes from understanding when overs still have value, especially in the 7.5 to 8.5 range.

Teams like the Mets, Cubs, and Blue Jays have consistently exceeded team totals of 4.5 runs, making them prime candidates for targeted over bets. The difference is context: these aren't blind plays but calculated spots where specific team offensive strengths align with opposing pitching vulnerabilities.

In July 2025, the Red Sox stand out as a perfect example. They've demonstrated consistent offensive production that frequently surpasses their team total of 4.5 runs. But timing is everything here. Finding bets early before public money drives up the line is essential for maximum value.

Bettors looking for at hitting the over for MLB run total lines aren't playing every game. They're selectively targeting specific teams in specific contexts while avoiding the inflated 9+ totals that other lose money on.

Monthly Variance Matters

Summer betting brings another critical factor: since 2022, majority bettors (those backing the most popular picks) have seen a consistent -12.5% ROI in months like July. This creates additional value for disciplined, contrarian plays.

This pattern suggests taking a disciplined approach during peak baseball season, when casual money floods the market and creates inefficiencies like the over/under discrepancy we're discussing.

Here's a profitable approach: Track specific teams rather than making blanket over/under bets. Focus on:

1. Teams consistently hitting their team totals (like the Red Sox and Blue Jays)
2. Pitcher-specific matchup data rather than season-long trends
3. Fading high totals (9+) with selective under bets
4. Acting early before public money moves lines

A Smarter Betting Process

Rather than chasing overs across the board, implement this workflow:

1. Identify games with posted totals of 9+ runs
2. Verify there's no exceptional reason for the high total (extreme weather, bullpen depletion)
3. Check if public money is predominantly on the over (it usually is)
4. If conditions align, fade the public and take the under

Conversely, for selective over bets:

1. Target teams consistently scoring 5 or more runs a game (Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays)
2. Focus on matchups against vulnerable pitching staffs
3. Act early before lines move
4. Consider team totals rather than full-game overs

This contrarian approach – fading high totals while selectively targeting certain team overs – creates a balanced strategy that exploits the market's most predictable inefficiency.

The casual bettor chases action and drama with overs. The sharp bettor waits patiently, spots market inefficiencies, and bets based on value, not excitement.

Over the long run, the difference is dramatic: a negative ROI versus a sustainable edge that consistently beats the market without requiring complex models or endless research hours.

Stop chasing action. Start hunting value.