Understanding Odds
Odds are the language of sports betting. But for newcomers, that language might seem intimidating. Fear not - once you understand the basics of how odds work, you'll be reading them like a pro in no time. In this guide, we'll break down the different odds formats and help you interpret what those numbers really mean.
The Three Main Odds Formats
There are three main formats for expressing odds:
- American Odds (aka Moneyline Odds): This is the dominant format used in the United States. Examples: -110, +150, +850
- Decimal Odds: Common in Canada, Australia, and Europe. Examples: 1.91, 2.50, 9.50
- Fractional Odds: Traditionally used in the UK and Ireland. Examples: 10/11, 6/4, 17/2
At their core, all these formats are just different ways of expressing the same thing: the payout you can expect if your bet wins, and by extension, the implied probability of that outcome.
Understanding American Odds
Let's start with American odds, since that's what most U.S. bettors will encounter. There are two components to an American odds listing:
- The direction (+ or -) indicates the favorite or underdog
- The number shows how much you'll win on a $100 bet (if +) or how much you need to bet to win $100 (if -)
Here are a few examples:
-110: You need to bet $110 to win $100. This is the most common price for a spread bet or over/under.+150: If you bet $100, you'll win $150 if your bet hits.+850: A $100 bet would return a whopping $850 profit. This is a longshot!
Spotting the favorite is easy - just look for the minus sign. The larger the number, the heavier the favorite. So a team at -180 is a bigger favorite than one at -120.
Converting Odds to Implied Probability
Reading odds becomes even more powerful when you understand how to convert them to their implied probabilities. This allows you to assess how likely the sportsbook thinks an outcome is and compare it to your own assessment. If you like a bet more than the bookie does, that's where you find value!
Converting American odds to implied probability involves some math, so buckle up. Let's take -110 as an example:
- Start with the absolute value of the odds: 110
- If the odds are negative, add 100. If positive, divide 100 by the odds + 100. For -110: 110 + 100 = 210
- Divide the result by 100: 210 / 100 = 2.1
- Divide 1 by that result: 1 / 2.1 = 0.4761904761904762
- Multiply by 100 to get the implied probability percentage: 47.62%
So when you see a -110 line, the bookie is saying they think that outcome has about a 47.6% chance of happening.
If you'd like to avoid the calculations, you can use an odds converter tool to do the math for you.
A Sample Odds Conversion Table
Here are a few common odds across the three formats and their implied probabilities:
| American Odds | Decimal Odds | Fractional Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| -110 | 1.91 | 10/11 | 47.62% |
| +100 | 2.00 | 1/1 | 50.00% |
| +150 | 2.50 | 3/2 | 40.00% |
| +300 | 4.00 | 3/1 | 25.00% |
| +1000 | 11.00 | 10/1 | 9.09% |
As you can see, as the American odds get more negative, the implied probability goes up because that team is a bigger favorite. As American odds get more positive, the implied probability goes down because that team is a bigger underdog.
Putting Odds Reading into Practice
The best way to get comfortable reading odds is to practice. Start by pulling up the odds for upcoming games and see if you can spot the favorites. Then try converting some of the numbers to implied probability, either by hand or using a tool.
As you build your sports betting knowledge, you'll start developing your own sense of the probabilities in each matchup. Overlay that with your new odds reading skills and you'll begin to spot value opportunities like a seasoned pro!
Remember, odds are just a way of expressing likelihood. They don't guarantee outcomes - there's a reason "the house always wins" is a common refrain. Successful sports betting is about making informed assessments, practicing disciplined bankroll management, and continuously learning.
Speaking of continuous learning, stay tuned for our next educational piece on the ins and outs of different bet types. In the meantime, may the odds be ever in your favor!