Think you can’t make money betting NFL preseason games? You’re not alone. Most bettors skip the preseason entirely or treat it like the regular season. Both are mistakes.
These exhibition games look “meaningless” to fans, but there’s real value in August if you know where to look. The odds are softer, the information gaps are wider, and the public mostly isn’t paying attention. Here are four preseason betting strategies that keep working year after year.
1. Follow the coaches, not the teams
A head coach tosses a challenge flag during a preseason game, illustrating how some teams aggressively compete even in exhibition matchups.
Forget regular-season power rankings. In the preseason, coaching tendencies determine outcomes far more than roster talent. Certain coaches consistently approach exhibition games with winning in mind, and their against-the-spread (ATS) records show it. For example, Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has led the Ravens to a 38-22-1 ATS record in preseason games (covering 63.3% of the time). His teams have been strong in preseason openers for years. Buffalo’s Sean McDermott takes preseason just as seriously — 15-7-2 ATS (a 68.2% cover rate, the highest among active coaches).
On the flip side, some coaches clearly prioritize evaluation over winning and it shows. Brian Daboll is 1-8 ATS in preseason. Dan Quinn is 6-18 ATS. Those are consistently bad exhibition records. They aren’t flukes. Some coaches openly admit they don’t game-plan or play starters in August, running vanilla schemes to evaluate talent. Others, like Harbaugh and McDermott, try to win every game.
The takeaway: identify the “bet-on” coaches vs. the “fade” coaches. Back teams with coaches who care about winning in August, and fade those who don’t. As one Vegas oddsmaker put it, “The NFL preseason is the only time in U.S. pro sports when you can bet a team and a coach that is trying to win against a team and coach that does not care” (Source).
2. Bet the first half, not the full game
NFL preseason games split into two very different halves. By the fourth quarter, you’re watching guys who might be selling insurance next month. Roster deep reserves and camp bodies take over, and the results are chaos. The first half is where the real football happens — starters and primary backups are still in the game.
That’s why sharp bettors focus on first-half lines instead of full-game spreads. In the early preseason weeks, coaches usually script their quarterback rotations: starters (if they play at all) get a series or two, and the primary backup might play most of the first half. The first-half spread and total reflect players who actually know the system and can execute the offense. Second halves are pure randomness.
Coach press conferences matter here. Coaches often telegraph their plans – and the betting market doesn’t always adjust enough. When a coach says “the starters will play the first quarter” or “our #2 quarterback will run with the first-team offense,” that’s information you can bet on. It’s one of the rare times NFL coaches are candid about strategy. For example, in this year’s preseason opener, Pete Carroll announced he’d play his starters longer than usual; the betting line flipped from Seattle -1.5 to Las Vegas -4.5 largely on that news. If you knew Carroll’s philosophy (40-25-1 ATS in preseason) and heard he was going all out, you had a clear edge.
The second half? Coin flip. Build your preseason strategy around the first half and ignore the late-game noise.
Trey Lance’s Hall of Fame Game performance is a good example. The Chargers gave Lance extended run in the first three quarters, and he delivered, going 13-of-20 for 120 yards and 2 TDs. Facing mostly Detroit backups, Lance looked comfortable and helped LA jump out early. Jim Harbaugh treated the first half seriously, and bettors who saw that coming cashed. When you know a motivated backup QB will play with the first team against an opponent’s deep reserves, bet the first-half line.
3. Target small underdogs (especially on the road)
One of the best preseason betting angles is backing small underdogs, particularly in road games. Oddsmakers still post point spreads for exhibitions, but these lines are often influenced by public perception rather than true team strength or motivation. That creates value on modest underdogs getting only a point or two.
The data is strong. Since 2015, preseason underdogs of +1 to +3 have gone 178-116 ATS, hitting at a 60.5% rate. A 60% win rate over that sample size is serious. Last preseason alone, these small underdogs went 16-8 against the spread.
Why? Favorites are overvalued by casual bettors. Sportsbooks know the public tends to lay points, even in preseason. But in exhibition games, the usual power ratings are unreliable. Star players see limited snaps or sit out entirely. A “better” team might be laying -3, but if their starters play one series and the opponent’s backups are superior, that favorite tag is meaningless. Motivation mismatches matter too — one side might treat the game like a playoff (to establish a winning culture), while the favorite sleepwalks through vanilla play-calling.
Big preseason favorites have been bad bets too. Since 2010, teams favored by more than 7 points are just 5-11 ATS (31.3%). Giving a touchdown in August is rarely justified. Meanwhile, moderate favorites of -3.5 to -7 cover around 54.5% – not terrible, but nothing special. The sweet spot is those short dogs. Road underdogs especially, since home field in preseason is minimal. Road teams in general have a slight ATS edge in recent preseasons, and road underdogs of ≤2.5 points have covered nearly 66% since 2015.
Grab the small underdogs, especially on the road. If Team A is +2 away and plans to play a motivated backup QB for two quarters against Team B’s third-string defense, that’s a great spot. And fade the heavy favorites — laying big points in preseason is a losing game.
4. Monitor backup QB quality and usage
In preseason, quarterback depth charts matter more than anything else. In August, a team’s fortunes often hinge on its second- and third-string QBs. A strong backup group can dominate opposing scrubs, and sportsbooks often misprice these situations.
Know the depth chart. Starters play sparingly (if at all), so a team’s backup quarterback is far more important than its starter for preseason predictions. If a team has an experienced, capable #2 or #3 QB, that team has a huge edge in the second half of preseason games. As one betting guide put it, “a team’s backup quarterback is significantly more important than the starter when it comes to predicting a preseason victory” Source. Target teams with experienced backups or a heated QB competition, since those teams keep competent QBs on the field throughout the game.
The Los Angeles Chargers are the best example this year. Behind Justin Herbert, they have former first-round pick Trey Lance and veteran Taylor Heinicke battling for the backup job. That depth pays off in August. Lance is motivated to earn a roster spot, and in the Hall of Fame Game he tore up the Lions’ reserve defense for two touchdowns and 120 passing yards. A talented QB like Lance playing against third-string defenders? That’s a mismatch the market misses.
It’s not just the Chargers. Any team with a proven veteran backup or a high-upside young QB in competition is worth a look. Study the announced QB rotations for each game. If Coach A says their #2 QB will get “extended work,” that’s a green light, especially if the opponent’s backup situation is weaker. But if a team is starting a raw rookie or has a shaky third-stringer slated for heavy minutes, be careful backing them regardless of their starters. A strong backup QB rotation can make a mediocre team a preseason contender, while a poor backup group can sink a favorite.
Do your homework on who’s under center after the first series. When a former first-round talent like Lance or a veteran like Heinicke is facing future practice-squad players, that’s the edge.
The bottom line
NFL preseason betting rewards preparation and information more than any other football market. While public bettors chase regular-season storylines, sharp bettors build bankrolls in August with these four strategies:
- Ride coaches with strong preseason ATS records — bet on Harbaugh’s Ravens or McDermott’s Bills, fade coaches who don’t care about winning (Daboll, Quinn).
- Focus on first-half lines — that’s when starters and primary backups play and your handicapping edge is biggest. Skip the fourth-quarter chaos.
- Back small underdogs (especially on the road) — short dogs (+1 to +3) cover around 60%. Public bias inflates favorites, and with unpredictable rotations, those small underdogs are where the value lives. Don’t lay big points — large favorites rarely cover.
- Target teams with quality backup QBs — quarterback depth wins preseason games. Watch for coach comments about QB usage, and bet teams whose 2nd/3rd string QBs can outclass the other side.
These edges won’t last forever as sportsbooks adjust their models. But for now, August football is still one of the best spots on the calendar if you’re willing to do the work. Coaching tendencies, QB rotations, situational trends — that’s your toolkit. Use it before the public catches on.