Most recreational bettors are losing at MLB because they're chasing the wrong angles. While casual players fight over Yankees run lines and blue-chip pitcher props, professional bettors have shifted toward five specific trends that are consistently profitable but remain underexploited.
We're sharing five approaches you can implement into your MLB wagering process, all hiding in plain sight, backed by significant sample sizes, and persistently profitable due to fundamental market inefficiencies that bookmakers haven't corrected.
1. Home Underdogs Are Crushing It
The most actionable trend in 2025's MLB landscape is the resurgence of home underdogs. They're hitting at a 45.9% win rate, which doesn't sound impressive until you realize it translates to serious profit at underdog prices.
The math is straightforward. When a team has roughly a 46% chance of winning but the market prices them as if they have a 40% chance, you've found a structural edge that compounds over time.
This is especially potent when targeting specific situations:
- Home underdogs after a win (the market overadjusts, expecting regression)
- Home teams with rested bullpens (often undervalued by models)
- Teams like the Royals and Red Sox playing at home with plus-money odds
The edge exists because algorithms and public perception still over-weight road favorites, particularly when "name brand" teams travel. While everyone piles onto Dodgers -150 road lines, sharp money consistently finds value on home teams getting +125 or better.
2. The NRFI Gold Rush
No-Run First Inning (NRFI) betting has exploded in popularity, yet the market still hasn't properly calibrated to pitcher-specific first-inning performance.
Pitchers like MacKenzie Gore, Tarik Skubal, and Garrett Crochet demonstrate significantly better metrics in the first inning compared to their overall numbers. This creates a repeatable edge when these pitchers face teams with weak top-of-order performance.
The key insight most bettors miss: First innings are consistently the lowest-scoring frames in baseball (57-58% scoreless compared to ~54% for other innings). This baseline advantage grows stronger when you add specific pitcher analysis.
The ideal NRFI targets demonstrate:
- First-inning ERA at least 1.00 lower than overall ERA
- Strong performance against top-3 hitters in opposing lineups
- Groundball tendencies or high K-rates in early innings
The Orioles-Mariners matchups consistently deliver NRFI value due to both teams' starting pitching strengths and lineup construction. Find similar patterns and you'll discover opportunities the market hasn't fully priced.
3. The "Bad Teams After Wins" System
This might be the most counterintuitive edge in all of baseball betting, but the data is undeniable: Betting on bad teams immediately after they win a game has been profitable every single season since 2005.
The system is elegantly simple:
- Identify teams with win percentages of 40% or lower
- Bet on them in their next game after a win
- That's it
Across nearly 3,000 games, this approach has generated over $19,000 in profit for a $100 bettor. More impressively, it's never had a losing season.
The edge exists because the betting public (and sometimes bookmakers) overreact to losing streaks. When a bad team finally breaks through with a win, the line correction for their next game is insufficient compared to the confidence boost and momentum shift.
Fading public sentiment is always profitable in the long run, and nothing draws public fades like a 38% team that just squeaked out a win.
4. Mid-Tier Pitcher K-Props
While everyone battles over Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider strikeout props at juiced prices, sharp bettors have shifted focus to mid-tier pitchers showing K-rate improvements.
Pitchers like Luis Ortiz (Cleveland) and Matthew Liberatore are showing significant strikeout growth that hasn't been fully incorporated into their prop lines. Ortiz ranks 32nd in MLB strikeouts but remains undervalued in the prop market.
When targeting these opportunities:
- Look for pitchers with recent K/9 increases of 1.5+ over career norms
- Target games immediately after mediocre overall outings (keeps props depressed)
- Focus on home games in pitcher-friendly parks
The market adjusts quickly for elite arms but moves sluggishly for middle-tier pitchers, especially those on smaller market teams. By focusing on recent performance rather than season-long or career numbers, you'll consistently beat closing lines.
Liberatore's K-rate is up three percentage points from last season, while Luis Ortiz has shown consistent improvement in swing-and-miss stuff despite a concerning hard-hit rate. These contradictory signals create perfect prop opportunities before the market reconciles the data.
5. The On-Base Streak Exploits
One of the most profitable prop angles this season involves targeting hitters on extended on-base streaks against vulnerable pitching staffs.
James Wood provides the perfect case study. His 30-game on-base streak in the minors translated seamlessly to MLB, where he extended another streak to 18 games in May 2025. When facing teams with poor OBA rankings (like the Cubs at 21st), his props represent significant value.
The edge exists because:
- Markets adjust sluggishly to on-base consistency (vs. power metrics)
- Exit velocity and hard-hit rate provide confirmation that isn't priced in
- Multi-hit potential creates overlay opportunities on total bases props
Most casual bettors focus exclusively on home run props for household names, missing the value on hit props for consistent contact hitters in favorable matchups. Wood's recent at-bats have produced exit velocities above 100 mph, suggesting sustainable quality contact rather than luck-driven results.
This approach works particularly well against teams with staff-wide control problems (like the Cubs) who create favorable hitting conditions beyond just matchups against specific pitchers.
Implementing These Edges
To capitalize on these trends, you need a systematic approach:
- Create daily watchlists targeting each angle:
- Today's home underdogs
- NRFI candidates based on 1st inning metrics
- Bad teams coming off wins
- Mid-tier pitchers with improving K-rates
- Hitters with on-base streaks of 10+ games
WagerLens tip: Use the upcoming games screen every day to identify the best games to exploit these opportunities
-
Focus on market timing. Early lines often offer the best value before sharp money moves numbers, particularly for player props and lesser-known teams.
-
Employ flat betting. These edges work because they win over large samples. Avoid the temptation to chase losses or press advantages—consistency is key.
-
Track everything meticulously. The difference between winning and losing often comes down to identifying which specific sub-angles within these systems are most profitable in current conditions.
The beauty of these five trends is that they complement each other and often present multiple angles on the same game. You might find a home underdog with a pitcher showing improved strikeout rates facing a team that just broke a losing streak—creating a perfect storm of value.
While public bettors chase narratives and big-market teams, keep your focus on these proven edges. They may not make for exciting bar talk, but they'll keep your betting account growing while others wonder why they can't beat the baseball market.